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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still