A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
