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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd